USD Durable Goods Orders m/m, Dec 24, 2025

US Durable Goods Orders Slip Further Than Expected: A Worrying Sign for Economic Momentum

Washington D.C. – December 24, 2025 – The United States economy received a dose of sobering news on Christmas Eve as the Census Bureau released its latest Durable Goods Orders report. The data, typically a bellwether for manufacturing activity and broader economic health, revealed a steeper than anticipated decline, casting a shadow over the nation's economic outlook.

Durable Goods Orders m/m:

• Actual: -2.2%
• Forecast: -1.5%
• Previous: 0.5%
• Impact: Medium
• Country: USD
• Date: December 24, 2025

The actual reading of -2.2% for Durable Goods Orders month-over-month (m/m) significantly missed the market’s forecast of -1.5%. This represents a stark deterioration from the previous month's positive reading of 0.5%, signaling a notable downturn in demand for long-lasting manufactured goods. While the impact is categorized as "Medium," this substantial miss and the sharp reversal from positive territory warrant close attention from traders and economists alike.

Understanding Durable Goods Orders and Their Significance

The Durable Goods Orders m/m report, released monthly by the Census Bureau, measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. These are defined as hard products having a life expectancy of more than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances, and airplanes. The data is typically released approximately 26 days after the month ends, providing a relatively timely snapshot of industrial activity.

Why do traders care so deeply about this report? It serves as a leading indicator of production. When companies receive rising purchase orders for durable goods, it signals an anticipation of increased manufacturing activity as they work to fulfill these new demands. Conversely, a decline in these orders suggests a softening in future production plans, which can have ripple effects throughout the economy.

Analyzing the Latest Data and its Implications

The December 24, 2025, release paints a concerning picture. The actual figure of -2.2% not only signifies a contraction in orders but also reveals that this contraction was more pronounced than economists had predicted. This suggests that the underlying pressures dampening demand for durable goods are stronger than initially understood.

The dramatic shift from the previous month’s positive 0.5% to a negative 2.2% is particularly alarming. This indicates a rapid cooling in the manufacturing sector within a short period. Several factors could be contributing to this decline:

• Weakening Consumer Confidence: If consumers are feeling uncertain about the future economic landscape, they are likely to postpone or reduce purchases of big-ticket items like cars, appliances, and electronics. This directly translates into fewer orders for manufacturers.
• Rising Interest Rates and Inflationary Pressures: Persistent inflation and higher interest rates can erode purchasing power and increase the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers. This can lead to a pullback in spending on durable goods, which are often financed.
• Global Economic Slowdown: The US economy is not an island. A slowdown in major trading partners can reduce demand for American-made durable goods, impacting export orders.
• Supply Chain Disruptions (though less prevalent now): While global supply chain issues have eased compared to previous years, localized disruptions or bottlenecks can still impact manufacturers' ability to fulfill orders, potentially leading to order cancellations or delays.

The usual effect for this report states that 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency (USD). In this specific instance, the actual figure (-2.2%) is worse than the forecast (-1.5%), which is generally a negative signal for the USD. This indicates that the economic headwinds are stronger than anticipated, potentially leading to a cautious sentiment among investors and a possible softening of the dollar.

Important Caveats and Future Outlook

It is crucial to note the "ffnotes" accompanying this data: "This data is usually revised via the Factory Orders report released about a week later." This means the initial reading of -2.2% might be subject to adjustment. The Factory Orders report provides a more comprehensive picture by including orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Therefore, while this Durable Goods Orders report is significant, it's essential to await the revised figures for a definitive assessment.

Another important piece of information highlighted is the "ffnotice: Release date delayed by 26 days due to the US government shutdown." This indicates that the data collection and reporting process may have faced some disruptions, though the Census Bureau is committed to providing these crucial economic indicators.

Looking ahead, the next release is scheduled for January 28, 2026. This next report will be critical in determining whether the current decline is a temporary blip or the beginning of a sustained downturn in manufacturing. Traders and economists will be eagerly anticipating this data to gauge the resilience of the US manufacturing sector and its broader implications for economic growth.

In conclusion, the latest Durable Goods Orders report from the Census Bureau has delivered a concerning message. The steeper-than-expected decline in orders for long-lasting manufactured goods signals potential weaknesses in both consumer and business spending. While the data is subject to revision, this initial reading suggests that the US economy may be facing stronger headwinds than previously anticipated, necessitating careful monitoring of future economic indicators.