By forex calendar in Core Retail Sales m/m —

USD Core Retail Sales m/m, Feb 10, 2026

Retail Sales Slowdown: What the Latest US Spending Data Means for Your Wallet

Meta Description: Discover what the latest Core Retail Sales data means for the US economy, your spending, and potential currency impacts. Understand the slowdown and its implications.

Ever wondered what keeps the American economy humming? It's largely your shopping habits! The latest data on US retail sales, released on February 10, 2026, offers a fascinating glimpse into just how much we’re opening our wallets. While we all love a good bargain or a new gadget, the numbers tell a story about where we stand economically, and they might surprise you.

The headline figures for Core Retail Sales month-over-month (m/m) landed with a bit of a thud. The actual reading came in at a flat 0.0%. Now, you might be thinking, "Is that good or bad?" To understand this, let's look at what was expected. Economists, who analyze these trends, had forecasted a modest 0.3% increase. So, the actual result significantly missed the mark. What's more, this is a considerable slowdown from the 0.5% recorded in the previous month. This high-impact data from the Census Bureau is a big deal, and it’s worth digging into why.

What Exactly Are "Core Retail Sales"?

Think of retail sales as the grand total of everything you buy at shops – from your morning coffee and weekly groceries to that new pair of shoes or electronics. However, some items in this big basket are a bit… wobbly. Cars, for instance, are a huge purchase, but they can fluctuate wildly from month to month due to supply issues, new model releases, or even temporary discounts.

This is where "Core Retail Sales," also known as "Retail Sales Ex Autos," comes in. This is the number traders and economists really focus on because it strips out those volatile car sales. By removing automobiles, which make up about 20% of the total, we get a clearer picture of the underlying trend in consumer spending. It's like looking at the everyday shopping habits of most households, excluding those big, occasional splurges. And this cleaner view is crucial because consumer spending accounts for the majority of overall economic activity in the United States.

Decoding the February 10th Numbers: A Slowdown in Spending?

So, what does that 0.0% reading on February 10th actually tell us? Simply put, it means that after excluding car purchases, the total value of sales at retail stores didn't budge from the previous month. It didn't grow, but it also didn't shrink. This is a stark contrast to the 0.3% growth economists had anticipated and a significant step down from the 0.5% increase seen in the prior period.

Imagine your household budget. If your spending stayed exactly the same month after month, and you were expecting to increase it a bit, that flat line might signal a pause. For the broader economy, this suggests that consumers, on average, are maintaining their spending levels but not actively increasing them. This could be influenced by a variety of factors, such as ongoing inflation, interest rate concerns, or general economic uncertainty. The fact that this number is delayed by 27 days due to the US government shutdown also adds another layer of complexity, potentially masking even earlier shifts in consumer behavior.

How Does This Data Affect You?

This might sound like dry economic news, but it has tangible effects on your daily life:

  • Your Job Prospects: When consumer spending slows, businesses often see fewer sales. This can lead to companies scaling back hiring plans or, in some cases, even resorting to layoffs. So, a consistent dip in core retail sales can make the job market feel tighter.
  • Prices and Inflation: If demand for goods and services isn't growing, businesses might be less inclined to raise prices. However, the 0.0% figure doesn't necessarily mean prices are falling. It signifies a lack of increased spending on actual goods, which could be a sign that inflation might be cooling if the quantity of goods sold isn't increasing either.
  • Interest Rates and Mortgages: The Federal Reserve, which sets interest rates, watches consumer spending very closely. If spending is sluggish, it might signal that the economy is cooling down. In response, the Fed might consider lowering interest rates to encourage borrowing and spending. For you, this could mean lower mortgage rates, making buying a home more affordable, or lower rates on other loans.
  • The US Dollar (USD): In the world of international finance, this data is a big deal for the US dollar. Generally, stronger economic data, like higher retail sales, is seen as good news for a country's currency because it suggests a healthy economy. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data, like the 0.0% reading we saw, can make investors less optimistic about the US economy. This can lead to a weaker dollar. If the dollar weakens, imported goods (like many electronics or foreign cars) might become more expensive for US consumers, while US exports become cheaper for other countries.

Why Traders Care: Financial traders and investors are constantly looking for signals about the health of the US economy. The Core Retail Sales m/m report is one of their go-to indicators. A reading below expectations, like today's 0.0%, can trigger a sell-off in US stocks or bonds as investors anticipate a weaker economic future. Conversely, a strong reading would likely boost market confidence. The fact that this release is about 16 days after the month ends (meaning January's data was released on Feb 10th) is a standard rhythm, but the unusual delay due to the government shutdown adds a layer of uncertainty.

Looking Ahead: What's Next for US Spending?

The 0.0% figure is a clear signal that the robust consumer spending we might have become accustomed to is showing signs of moderation. While it’s not a contraction, the failure to meet forecasts and the significant drop from the previous month warrant attention.

We'll be watching the next release on March 16, 2026, which will cover February's sales. Will this be a temporary pause, or the start of a longer trend? Factors like upcoming holiday spending (though this report covers January), changes in employment figures, and any new government policies will all play a role.

For everyday Americans, understanding these economic indicators is about more than just headlines. It’s about how your job security, your purchasing power, and your financial future are all interconnected with the ebb and flow of the US economy.

Key Takeaways:

  • Headline Numbers: Core Retail Sales m/m for January 2026 came in at a flat 0.0%, missing the forecast of 0.3% and down from 0.5% in the previous month.
  • What it Means: This indicates a significant slowdown in consumer spending, excluding volatile automobile sales, suggesting consumers are not increasing their purchasing power.
  • Real-World Impact: This could lead to slower job growth, impact inflation, influence interest rates (potentially lowering them), and weaken the US dollar.
  • Government Shutdown Effect: The release date was delayed, adding a layer of complexity to the interpretation of the data.
  • Looking Ahead: The next report on March 16, 2026, will be crucial to see if this trend continues.