USD Core Retail Sales m/m, Dec 17, 2025

U.S. Consumer Spending Shows Resilience: Core Retail Sales Beat Expectations in December 2025

Washington D.C. – In a significant indicator for the health of the U.S. economy, the latest data released on December 17, 2025, reveals that Core Retail Sales m/m (month-over-month) actually came in at 0.4%, surpassing the forecast of 0.2% and exceeding the previous figure of 0.3%. This positive surprise, carrying a high impact for the USD, signals a robust performance in consumer spending, a cornerstone of overall economic activity.

This report, officially titled "Core Retail Sales m/m," often referred to as "Retail Sales Ex Autos," provides a crucial lens through which economists and traders alike scrutinize the nation's economic momentum. The "m/m" designation signifies a month-over-month comparison, offering a timely snapshot of changing consumer behavior.

Decoding Core Retail Sales: A Deeper Dive into Consumer Spending

The measures for Core Retail Sales focus on the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. This exclusion is a critical element of the report's significance. As noted in the ffnotes, "Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends." By stripping out the often erratic fluctuations in car sales, economists gain a clearer picture of the underlying strength and consistency of consumer demand for a broader range of goods and services. This makes Core Retail Sales a more reliable barometer of the economy's true pulse.

The frequency of this report is released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends. This consistent schedule allows for timely analysis and adjustment of economic strategies. For the month of December 2025, the data was released on December 17th, providing an immediate look at the holiday shopping season's impact.

Why Traders Care: The Pulse of the U.S. Economy

The significance of Core Retail Sales for traders and market participants cannot be overstated. It is widely considered the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Consumer spending is the engine that drives a substantial portion of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). When consumers are spending, businesses thrive, jobs are created, and the economy expands. Conversely, a slowdown in consumer spending can signal economic headwinds and potential recessionary pressures.

Therefore, any deviation from expectations in Core Retail Sales can trigger significant market reactions. The usual effect observed is that an 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for the currency. In this instance, the actual reading of 0.4% significantly outperforming the forecasted 0.2% is a strong bullish signal for the U.S. Dollar (USD). This indicates that foreign exchange markets are likely to see increased demand for the dollar as investors anticipate a stronger U.S. economy.

Analyzing the December 2025 Data: A Positive Outlook

The December 17, 2025, release paints a picture of a resilient U.S. consumer. The actual figure of 0.4% demonstrates that consumers continued to spend at a healthy pace, even when excluding the often-volatile automotive sector. This suggests underlying strength in sectors such as apparel, electronics, home furnishings, and general merchandise.

The fact that this actual reading surpassed both the forecast (0.2%) and the previous month's figure (0.3%) is particularly encouraging. It indicates not just continued spending, but an acceleration in the pace of consumer expenditure compared to previous periods. This suggests that inflationary pressures, if present, were not deterring consumers from making purchases, or that incomes and confidence levels were sufficient to absorb any price increases.

The Impact of Automobiles: Understanding the "Ex Autos" Aspect

The exclusion of automobile sales, which make up a considerable portion of overall retail spending, is a deliberate choice to refine the data. While car sales are a vital part of the economy, their inherent volatility, influenced by factors like financing rates, new model releases, and economic sentiment, can obscure the steadier trends in other consumer goods. For example, a surge in new vehicle incentives could artificially inflate headline retail sales, while a slowdown in auto production might depress it. By removing these fluctuations, the Core Retail Sales report provides a more stable and reliable indicator of the consistent spending habits of the average American.

Looking Ahead: The Next Release and Potential Delays

The source of this crucial data is the Census Bureau (latest release), a government agency tasked with collecting and disseminating vital economic statistics. The next release for Core Retail Sales m/m is scheduled for January 15, 2026.

However, it's important to note a significant ffnotice associated with future releases: "Release date delayed by 32 days due to the US government shutdown." This indicates a potential for a substantial shift in the reporting schedule for future data. While the December 2025 data was released on time, the possibility of future delays due to government operational disruptions is a factor that market participants will need to monitor closely, as it can impact the timely analysis of economic trends.

Conclusion: A Strong Signal for the U.S. Economy

The Core Retail Sales m/m data for December 2025, with its actual figure of 0.4% significantly outperforming expectations, is a powerful testament to the strength of the U.S. consumer and, by extension, the broader U.S. economy. This positive development provides a bullish outlook for the U.S. Dollar and signals continued economic momentum in the short to medium term. As the primary gauge of consumer spending, this report will undoubtedly remain a key focus for investors, policymakers, and anyone seeking to understand the trajectory of the world's largest economy. The resilience demonstrated by consumers in December 2025 suggests that the U.S. economy is well-positioned to navigate any upcoming economic challenges.