USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Dec 23, 2025

US Core Durable Goods Orders Dip Below Expectations: A Closer Look at December 2025's Economic Signal

December 23, 2025, has brought a nuanced economic signal for the United States, with the latest data on Core Durable Goods Orders m/m painting a picture of moderated manufacturing demand. Released by the Census Bureau, this crucial economic indicator, often closely watched by traders and analysts, revealed an actual figure of 0.2%. This figure falls short of the forecast of 0.3%, signaling a slight deceleration in the underlying trend of manufacturing activity.

While the impact is categorized as Medium, this particular data point carries significant weight due to its forward-looking nature. The fact that the actual reading is below the forecast suggests a less robust demand for long-lasting manufactured goods than anticipated. This, in turn, can have ripple effects throughout the economy, influencing production levels, employment, and ultimately, the strength of the US Dollar (USD).

Decoding Core Durable Goods Orders: Why Traders Care

To understand the implications of this December 2025 release, it's essential to delve into what "Core Durable Goods Orders m/m" actually represents. Also known as Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation, this metric measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items.

The exclusion of transportation items, such as aircraft and vehicles, is a critical element. These sectors are notoriously volatile and can significantly distort the underlying trend of manufacturing demand. By stripping out these unpredictable components, the "Core" data provides a better gauge of purchase order trends and offers a more stable picture of manufacturers' order books.

The reason traders pay close attention to this data is its role as a leading indicator of production. When manufacturers receive more orders for durable goods – items designed to last three years or more, like machinery, computers, and appliances – it signals that they will likely need to increase their production activity to fulfill these orders. This anticipated rise in manufacturing output can lead to increased employment, higher capital expenditures, and a general boost to economic growth. Consequently, a positive reading in Core Durable Goods Orders is generally considered good for the currency, as it suggests a strengthening economy.

December 2025 Data: A Slight Downdraft in Demand

In December 2025, the actual reading of 0.2% for Core Durable Goods Orders m/m is a step down from the previous figure of 0.6%. This indicates a notable slowdown in the pace of new orders compared to the prior period. Coupled with the fact that this actual figure missed the forecast of 0.3%, the market sentiment might lean towards caution.

While a 0.2% increase is still positive, the shortfall in expectations suggests that the underlying demand for manufactured goods might not be as strong as economists and analysts had projected. This could imply a number of things:

• Businesses are exercising greater caution in their capital expenditures: Faced with economic uncertainties or a more conservative outlook for future demand, businesses might be delaying or scaling back their purchases of new machinery and equipment.
• Consumer spending on durable goods is moderating: While not a direct measure of consumer spending, a slowdown in orders for durable goods can indirectly reflect a cooling in consumer appetite for big-ticket items.
• Global economic headwinds are impacting US manufacturers: International demand for US-made durable goods could be softening, leading to fewer export orders.

Important Considerations and Future Outlook

It's crucial to acknowledge the notes provided by the Census Bureau regarding this report. The ffnotes highlight that this data is usually revised via the Factory Orders report released about a week later. This means the 0.2% figure is preliminary and could be subject to adjustment. Therefore, traders will be keenly awaiting the more comprehensive Factory Orders report for further clarity.

Furthermore, the ffnotice about a release date delayed by 26 days due to the US government shutdown is a reminder of potential disruptions in economic data releases. While this particular report has been released, it underscores the importance of staying informed about any such events that could impact the timeliness and accuracy of economic indicators.

Looking ahead, the next release is scheduled for January 28, 2026. This upcoming report will be essential in determining whether the December 2025 slowdown was a temporary blip or the beginning of a more sustained trend. Traders will be scrutinizing the January figures to see if the Core Durable Goods Orders rebound, stabilize, or continue to trend downwards.

In conclusion, the December 2025 Core Durable Goods Orders m/m data, while a medium-impact release, provides a subtle but significant insight into the health of US manufacturing. The shortfall against the forecast, coupled with a moderation from the previous month, suggests a more cautious environment for manufacturers. As always, a holistic view, incorporating subsequent data releases and other economic indicators, will be necessary to form a comprehensive understanding of the US economic landscape.