USD Chicago PMI, Nov 28, 2025

Chicago PMI Dips Below Expectations: A Closer Look at the November 28, 2025 Release and Its Economic Implications

Chicago, IL – November 28, 2025 – The latest Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data, released today, paints a less optimistic picture for the manufacturing sector in the region. The actual figure for November 2025 came in at 36.3, a notable dip from the previous reading of 43.8. This figure also fell short of the forecasted 43.9, indicating a more significant contraction in business activity than anticipated. While the impact of this particular report is categorized as Low, the trend it suggests warrants closer examination by traders and economic observers alike.

Understanding the Chicago PMI: A Leading Indicator of Economic Health

The Chicago PMI, also known as the Chicago Business Barometer, is a crucial economic indicator derived from a survey of approximately 200 purchasing managers in the Chicago area. These professionals are tasked with evaluating the current state of business conditions across a range of critical areas, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The significance of this survey lies in its forward-looking nature. As purchasing managers are directly involved in procurement and operational planning, their insights offer some of the most current and relevant perspectives on a company's outlook for the economy.

The PMI operates on a simple yet effective principle: a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity, while a figure below 50.0 signifies contraction. The further the reading deviates from 50.0, the stronger the signal of either expansion or contraction.

Analyzing the November 28, 2025 Release: A Decline in Momentum

The actual Chicago PMI of 36.3 on November 28, 2025, represents a contraction in manufacturing activity for the Chicago region. This is a noticeable decline from the previous month's reading of 43.8, suggesting a loss of momentum. The fact that this actual figure also fell below the forecasted 43.9 is particularly noteworthy. Economic forecasts are based on a consensus of expert opinions and historical trends, and a miss of this magnitude can signal that underlying economic forces are evolving differently than expected.

While the impact is deemed Low for this specific release, this is likely due to the fact that the Chicago PMI is one of many economic data points used by traders. Furthermore, it's worth noting the "ffnotes" provided: "Data is given to MNI subscribers 3 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers." This suggests that some initial market price adjustments might have already occurred among a select group of sophisticated traders, potentially mitigating the immediate impact on broader markets upon the public release.

Why Traders Care: The Predictive Power of the Chicago PMI

The reason traders pay close attention to the Chicago PMI is its proven ability to act as a leading indicator of economic health. Businesses, and by extension their purchasing managers, are often the first to react to shifts in market conditions. When purchasing managers report a decline in new orders, a slowdown in production, or concerns about inventory levels, it's a strong signal that broader economic headwinds might be on the horizon. Conversely, an improving PMI can precede periods of economic growth.

This "why traders care" aspect is paramount. By monitoring these monthly figures, investors and analysts can gain an early understanding of the trajectory of the U.S. economy, particularly the manufacturing sector, which has significant ripple effects across other industries. The survey's components – employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories – provide granular insights into the health of these specific business functions, allowing for a more nuanced analysis of economic trends.

The Broader Economic Context and What's Next

The Chicago PMI is derived via a survey and is released monthly, typically on the last business day of the current month. The next release is scheduled for December 30, 2025. This regular cadence allows for consistent monitoring of economic trends.

Given the actual figure of 36.3 on November 28, 2025, and the miss against the forecast of 43.9, several questions arise:

• What specific components of the survey contributed to the decline? Was it a broad-based slowdown, or were specific areas like new orders or production particularly weak? Further details within the report, if available, would provide crucial insights.
• Are there any external factors influencing this contraction? Global supply chain issues, geopolitical events, inflation concerns, or shifts in consumer demand could all be playing a role.
• Is this a temporary blip or the start of a more sustained downturn? The reading below 50.0 indicates contraction, and the significant drop from the previous month suggests a weakening of economic sentiment among Chicago-area manufacturers.

The fact that the country associated with this data is USD underscores its importance for the broader U.S. economy. While the impact is noted as Low for this individual release, a sustained period of contraction in a significant manufacturing hub like Chicago could indeed have a more pronounced effect on the U.S. dollar and national economic indicators in the future. Traders will be closely watching the December release to see if this trend continues or if there are signs of a rebound. The Chicago PMI remains a vital tool for navigating the complexities of the economic landscape.