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USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Nov 20, 2025

Breaking News: November 20, 2025 - A Closer Look at Labor Costs in the US

On November 20, 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a pivotal piece of economic data: the Average Hourly Earnings m/m (month-over-month). This report, closely watched by traders and economists alike, offers a snapshot of the cost of labor in the United States, excluding the agricultural sector. The latest figures reveal an actual increase of 0.2% for November, falling slightly below the forecasted 0.3%. This marks a decrease from the previous month's reading of 0.3%. The impact of this data is categorized as High, underscoring its significance for the US Dollar (USD).

Deconstructing Average Hourly Earnings: What it Measures and Why it Matters

At its core, Average Hourly Earnings m/m measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. This metric is a crucial component of understanding inflationary pressures within the economy. When businesses experience an increase in labor costs, they often absorb these higher expenses by adjusting their pricing strategies. This means that the higher wages paid to employees can eventually be passed on to consumers in the form of increased prices for goods and services.

This direct link to consumer inflation is precisely why traders care so deeply about this data. Average Hourly Earnings m/m is considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation. A sustained rise in hourly earnings suggests that businesses are facing escalating labor expenses, which in turn can signal an upward trend in inflation. For currency traders, understanding these inflationary signals is paramount, as inflation can significantly impact the purchasing power of a currency and, consequently, its exchange rate.

The November 2025 Data: A Signal of Moderating Wage Growth?

The most recent release on November 20, 2025, presents an interesting scenario. The actual figure of 0.2% indicates that wage growth, while still present, has moderated compared to both the previous month's 0.3% and the anticipated 0.3% for this period. This deviation from the forecast could be interpreted in several ways.

One perspective is that it suggests a cooling of the labor market. Businesses might be experiencing less pressure to offer significant wage increases, potentially due to a more balanced supply and demand for workers or a general slowdown in economic activity that impacts hiring and compensation decisions. For the USD, a lower-than-expected increase in labor costs can be perceived as a positive signal, as it might suggest that inflationary pressures are not as severe as initially anticipated. This could lead to a stronger USD, as it implies less immediate need for aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Conversely, while the actual is lower than the forecast, a 0.2% increase still represents an upward movement in labor costs. This means that inflationary pressures are still present, albeit at a slightly more subdued pace. The usual effect for this data point is that 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency. In this specific instance, the actual is less than the forecast, which could be seen as a neutral to slightly negative development for the USD, depending on how the market interprets the broader economic context.

The "Usual Effect" and Market Interpretation

It's crucial to understand the usual effect: 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency. This means that if the reported increase in average hourly earnings were higher than what was predicted, it would typically strengthen the US Dollar. This is because a stronger-than-expected rise in wages points towards robust economic activity and potentially higher inflation, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate hikes to manage inflation. Higher interest rates generally make a currency more attractive to foreign investors.

In the November 2025 release, the opposite occurred: the actual (0.2%) was lower than the forecast (0.3%). This scenario often leads to a different market reaction. A lower-than-expected wage increase can be interpreted as a sign of easing inflationary pressures. While this might sound beneficial for consumers in the long run, for currency traders, it can sometimes signal a less urgent need for the central bank to raise interest rates, which could weaken the USD in the short term. However, the magnitude of the miss is also important. A slight miss might have a less dramatic impact than a significant one.

Looking Ahead: Next Release and Potential Delays

The BLS provides this data on a monthly basis, with the next release scheduled for December 5, 2025. This release will cover the data for the month of November. The frequency of this report, being released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends, allows for consistent monitoring of labor cost trends.

However, it's important to note the specific ffnotice for this report: "Release date delayed by 48 days due to the US government shutdown." This suggests a potential for further disruptions and delays in data releases, which can add an element of uncertainty for market participants. Traders will need to stay vigilant for any such announcements that might impact the timing of future economic data.

Historical Context and Data Evolution

The ffnotes also provide valuable context. The BLS has changed the series calculation formula as of February 2010. This means that direct comparisons of data points before and after this date should be made with caution, as the methodology may have evolved. Understanding these historical nuances is important for a comprehensive analysis of long-term trends.

In Conclusion

The latest Average Hourly Earnings m/m data released on November 20, 2025, indicates a moderation in wage growth, with an actual reading of 0.2% falling short of the 0.3% forecast. While this data is a high-impact indicator for the USD and serves as a leading indicator of consumer inflation, its interpretation requires a nuanced approach. Traders will continue to closely monitor this metric, along with other economic indicators, to gauge the overall health of the US economy and anticipate potential shifts in monetary policy. The upcoming release on December 5, 2025, will provide further insights into these evolving labor market dynamics and their implications for the global financial markets.