NZD Core Retail Sales q/q, Nov 26, 2025
New Zealand's Core Retail Sales Show Steady Growth: What the Nov 26, 2025 Data Means for the NZD
Wellington, NZ – November 26, 2025 – Statistics New Zealand has just released its latest figures for Core Retail Sales on a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) basis, revealing a solid performance that offers valuable insights into the health of the New Zealand economy and its potential impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The actual figure for November 26, 2025, stands at 0.8%, surpassing the forecast of 0.7%. This positive deviation from expectations, while deemed of low impact by analysts, still signals a healthy underlying trend. The previous quarter's reading was 0.7%, indicating a consistent, albeit modest, expansion in consumer spending.
Unpacking the Core Retail Sales Data: A Deeper Dive
To truly understand the significance of this release, it's crucial to dissect what "Core Retail Sales q/q" actually measures. This important economic indicator tracks the change in the total volume of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. The key distinguishing factor, and its namesake, is the exclusion of sales from automobiles and gas stations.
Why the Exclusion Matters: A More Accurate Picture
As the "ffnotes" from Statistics New Zealand highlight, the exclusion of automobile and gas station sales is a deliberate and strategic choice. These sectors, while significant contributors to overall retail turnover, are notoriously prone to volatility. Automobile sales, for instance, are often influenced by large, infrequent purchases, seasonal factors, and shifts in interest rates. Similarly, gasoline prices can fluctuate dramatically, impacting the nominal value of sales without necessarily reflecting a change in the volume of goods purchased.
By stripping away these volatile elements, Core Retail Sales Ex Autos (as it's also called) provides a better gauge of underlying spending trends. It offers a clearer picture of how New Zealand consumers are behaving in terms of their everyday purchases of goods, offering a more stable and reliable indicator of economic momentum. The fact that these excluded categories account for approximately 20% of total Retail Sales underscores the importance of focusing on the core data for a nuanced economic assessment.
The November 26, 2025 Release: A Positive Signal
The latest data, released on November 26, 2025, shows Core Retail Sales q/q growing by 0.8%. This is a positive development because it signifies that, after accounting for inflation, New Zealand consumers spent 0.8% more on core retail goods in the most recent quarter compared to the previous one. Crucially, this actual figure of 0.8% edged out the forecast of 0.7%. While the market may classify this as a "Low" impact event, any instance where the actual data outperforms expectations is generally viewed favorably.
The fact that the previous quarter also recorded a healthy 0.7% growth suggests a consistent upward trajectory. This isn't a sudden, unsustainable spike; rather, it points to a steady and gradual expansion in consumer confidence and spending power. This sustained growth in core retail activity is a positive sign for businesses operating in the retail sector and for the broader economy.
Usual Effect and the NZD: A Tentative Link
The "usualeffect" associated with this data point is that an 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency. In this instance, the 0.8% actual surpassing the 0.7% forecast aligns with this principle. A stronger-than-expected performance in core retail sales suggests a more robust domestic economy. This can lead to increased demand for New Zealand Dollars as investors perceive the country's economic outlook as more positive.
However, it's important to temper expectations regarding the immediate impact on the NZD. The "Low" impact classification suggests that this specific data point, in isolation, is unlikely to trigger significant currency movements. This is often because other macroeconomic factors, such as inflation rates, interest rate decisions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), global economic sentiment, and geopolitical events, can exert a far greater influence on currency valuations.
What's Next? The Road Ahead
The data from Statistics New Zealand also provides a forward-looking perspective. The next release of Core Retail Sales q/q is scheduled for February 22, 2026. This will give us another snapshot of consumer spending trends and allow for a more comprehensive analysis of the economic narrative.
Conclusion: A Stable Foundation for Growth
The Core Retail Sales q/q data released on November 26, 2025, paints a picture of a New Zealand economy where consumer spending is steadily expanding. The 0.8% growth, exceeding the 0.7% forecast, demonstrates a healthy underlying demand for goods, even after stripping away volatile sectors. While the immediate impact on the NZD may be muted due to other dominant market forces, this consistent positive performance provides a stable foundation for economic growth and contributes to a more favorable perception of New Zealand's economic health among potential investors. As we look towards the next release in February 2026, the sustained strength in core retail sales will remain a key metric to monitor for insights into the ongoing trajectory of the NZD and the broader New Zealand economy.