By forex calendar in ANZ Business Confidence —

NZD ANZ Business Confidence, Aug 28, 2025

ANZ Business Confidence: A Nuanced Picture of New Zealand's Economic Outlook

The ANZ Business Confidence index is a key indicator for understanding the health of the New Zealand economy. It offers a forward-looking perspective by gauging the sentiment of businesses across various sectors. A positive sentiment generally foreshadows increased economic activity, while a negative one suggests potential challenges ahead. Traders and economists alike closely monitor this data to inform their decisions and predictions.

Breaking Down the Latest Release (August 28, 2025):

The latest ANZ Business Confidence release, dated August 28, 2025, reveals a slightly improved, yet still pessimistic, outlook. The actual reading came in at 49.7, a move up from the previous reading of 47.8. The impact of this release is considered Low. While an improvement is encouraging, the fact that the index remains below the crucial 0.0 threshold signifies that a majority of businesses still hold a pessimistic view of the economic outlook for the next 12 months.

Here's a breakdown of what this specific release suggests:

  • Slightly Improved Sentiment: The increase from 47.8 to 49.7 indicates that business sentiment, while still negative, is becoming less pessimistic. This could be due to a number of factors, such as easing inflation pressures, anticipated government policies, or improvements in specific sectors.
  • Continued Pessimism: Despite the uptick, a reading of 49.7 still sits firmly below the 0.0 mark. This means that, on balance, more businesses surveyed are negative about the economic outlook than positive.
  • Low Impact: The designation of "Low" impact suggests that the market reaction to this specific release is likely to be muted. This could be because the improvement was marginal or because other economic factors are currently playing a more significant role in shaping market sentiment.

Understanding the ANZ Business Confidence Index in Detail:

  • Why Traders Care: The ANZ Business Confidence index acts as a leading indicator of economic health in New Zealand. Businesses are often the first to react to changing market conditions. Their sentiment – whether optimistic or pessimistic – can provide early signals about future economic activity. Optimistic businesses are more likely to increase spending, hire new employees, and invest in growth, all of which contribute to a stronger economy. Conversely, pessimistic businesses may cut back on spending, lay off employees, and delay investments, potentially leading to an economic slowdown.

  • How it's Derived: ANZ derives the Business Confidence index from a survey of approximately 2,000 businesses across various sectors, including manufacturing, construction, retail, agriculture, and services. The survey asks respondents to rate their relative 12-month economic outlook. The index is then calculated as a diffusion index based on these responses.

  • What it Measures: The index measures the level of a diffusion index. It indicates the breadth of optimism or pessimism across the surveyed businesses. The key threshold is 0.0. A reading above 0.0 indicates that more businesses are optimistic than pessimistic about the economic outlook, while a reading below 0.0 indicates the opposite.

  • Important Notes (FFNotes): As the note highlights, keep in mind a change to the report during the Apr 2020 - Jun 2021 and Sep 2021 - Nov 2021 period. This affects the relationship of the 'Previous' values to the current values during that time period.

  • Source: The data is sourced directly from ANZ, making it a reputable and authoritative indicator of business sentiment in New Zealand.

  • Next Release: The next release of the ANZ Business Confidence index is scheduled for September 29, 2025. Traders and economists will be watching closely to see if the slight improvement observed in August continues, or if sentiment reverts to its previous level.

  • Usual Effect on the NZD: Typically, an 'Actual' reading that is greater than the 'Forecast' is considered positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). This is because it suggests a stronger economy, which could lead to higher interest rates and increased foreign investment, both of which tend to strengthen the currency. However, the actual impact on the NZD can be influenced by various other factors prevailing in the market at the time of the release.

  • Frequency: The ANZ Business Confidence index is released monthly, typically around the end of the current month, providing a regular update on the state of business sentiment in New Zealand.

Implications of the August 2025 Release:

The August 2025 ANZ Business Confidence release paints a mixed picture of the New Zealand economy. While the slight improvement is a positive sign, the persistent pessimism among businesses raises concerns about the potential for future economic growth.

Looking Ahead:

The next ANZ Business Confidence release in September 2025 will be crucial in determining whether the slight improvement in sentiment observed in August is a sustained trend or simply a temporary blip. Traders and economists will be closely monitoring the data to gain further insights into the health of the New Zealand economy and its potential trajectory. It is important to remember that this index is just one piece of the puzzle. It should be considered alongside other economic indicators, such as inflation, employment, and GDP growth, to form a comprehensive understanding of the New Zealand economic landscape.