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EUR French Prelim CPI m/m, Nov 28, 2025

French Consumer Prices Show Unexpected Dip: What the Latest Prelim CPI Data Means for the Eurozone

Paris, France – November 28, 2025 – In a development that may send ripples through the European economy, the latest preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for France, released today, November 28, 2025, has revealed an unexpected contraction in consumer prices. The French Prelim CPI m/m figure came in at -0.1%, a notable shift from the 0.0% forecast and a distinct departure from the previous month's reading of 0.1%. While the impact of this data is categorized as Low, its implications warrant a closer look, especially given the consistent nature of its release and the nuances of its reporting.

This monthly report, a crucial barometer of inflation within the Eurozone's second-largest economy, is typically released around the end of each current month. The data signifies a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. The fact that this latest reading has dipped into negative territory, even by a fraction, suggests a potential cooling in inflationary pressures or, in a more concerning interpretation, a nascent sign of deflation.

Understanding the French Prelim CPI m/m: A Deeper Dive

The French Prelim CPI m/m, or the preliminary month-on-month Consumer Price Index, is a vital economic indicator. Its significance is amplified by a few key characteristics:

  • Dual Reporting: As noted, there are two versions of this report: a Preliminary and a Final release. The Preliminary version, first introduced in January 2016, is the earliest available snapshot of consumer price changes. Because it precedes the Final report by approximately two weeks, it generally carries more weight and is closely watched by financial markets for its immediate impact. This latest release on November 28, 2025, represents this crucial preliminary figure.

  • Non-Seasonally Adjusted Nature: A distinguishing feature of the French Prelim CPI m/m is that it is one of the few economic indicators reported without seasonal adjustments. This means it directly reflects the raw, primary calculation of price changes, offering a less filtered view of actual price movements.

  • The Source: The data is meticulously compiled and released by INSEE (Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques), France's national institute of statistics and economic studies, ensuring a high degree of reliability and accuracy.

Decoding the Latest Figures: -0.1% vs. 0.0% Forecast

The divergence between the actual result of -0.1% and the forecast of 0.0% is the most striking aspect of today's announcement. A forecast represents the consensus expectation of economists and market analysts. When the actual outcome deviates from this consensus, it can lead to adjustments in market sentiment and trading strategies.

  • What does -0.1% mean? This figure indicates that, on average, the prices of a basket of goods and services consumed by French households have decreased by 0.1% in the month leading up to November 28, 2025. This is a mild contraction, but any negative reading on inflation is noteworthy.

  • Why is it significant compared to the forecast? The forecast of 0.0% suggested that prices were expected to remain stable. The actual outcome of -0.1% implies that price pressures have weakened more than anticipated. This could be attributed to various factors, such as a decline in energy prices, a softening in demand for certain goods, or more aggressive discounting by retailers.

  • The "Usual Effect": The general rule of thumb for this indicator is that an 'Actual' reading greater than 'Forecast' is good for the currency. In this specific instance, the actual is less than the forecast (or rather, it moved from a positive expectation to a negative reality). This means that, by this usual measure, the news is not inherently positive for the Euro. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading (actual > forecast) typically signals a potentially healthier economy and can lead to expectations of interest rate hikes, thus boosting the currency. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected or negative inflation reading might suggest economic sluggishness and potentially lower interest rates, which can dampen currency appeal.

Impact Assessment: Low, but Not Irrelevant

While the impact of this particular report is labeled as Low, this classification should be understood within its context. For individual CPI releases, especially those with a small deviation, the impact is often moderate. However, when viewed in conjunction with broader economic trends and as part of a series, even a "Low Impact" figure can contribute to a larger narrative.

The fact that it's the preliminary release means it’s the first indication, and the market will be keenly awaiting the final figures. Furthermore, its non-seasonally adjusted nature provides a direct measure. Traders and analysts will be looking at how this aligns with inflation targets set by the European Central Bank (ECB) and considering its implications for future monetary policy decisions. If this trend of cooling inflation persists in subsequent months, it could influence the ECB's stance on interest rates, potentially delaying any anticipated tightening or even hinting at the possibility of easing if deflationary pressures become more pronounced.

Looking Ahead: The Next Release

The market will be keeping a close eye on the next release scheduled for January 6, 2026. This will provide the finalized data for November's CPI and offer further insight into the trajectory of French inflation. Investors and policymakers will be assessing whether the -0.1% reading was a temporary blip or the beginning of a sustained trend.

In conclusion, the French Prelim CPI m/m data released on November 28, 2025, indicating a slight contraction in consumer prices at -0.1%, is a development that warrants attention. While its immediate impact is assessed as low, the deviation from the 0.0% forecast and its position within the broader Eurozone economic landscape make it a significant data point for understanding inflationary pressures and potential future economic policy.