EUR French Flash GDP q/q, Oct 30, 2024

French Flash GDP Holds Steady, Despite Forecast of Slowdown

On October 30, 2024, the INSEE released the latest Flash estimate of France's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2024. The report showed that the French economy grew by 0.4% on a quarterly basis, a slight increase from the previous quarter's 0.3% growth. This outcome exceeded the forecast of 0.3%, providing a small boost to the Euro.

Why Traders Care:

The Flash GDP reading is a significant economic indicator for several reasons:

• Broadest Measure: It offers the most comprehensive view of the overall economic activity in France.
• Health Indicator: It's the primary gauge of the economy's health, providing insights into its growth trajectory and potential challenges.

Frequency and Importance:

The Flash GDP is released quarterly, approximately 29 days after the end of the quarter. While it's an early estimate, it often carries the most impact due to its timeliness. It's followed by a preliminary and a final release, typically about 30 days apart. However, the final GDP release is often considered insignificant, as it's a minor revision to the previous estimates.

Understanding the Latest Release:

The October 30, 2024, Flash GDP release revealed a positive surprise, as the actual growth rate of 0.4% exceeded the forecasted 0.3%. This implies that the French economy performed better than anticipated during the third quarter. The data suggests that France's economic growth is more resilient than some analysts had predicted, potentially leading to a more optimistic outlook on the Euro.

The Impact on the Euro:

The generally accepted rule of thumb is that a stronger-than-expected 'Actual' GDP reading, compared to the 'Forecast', is positive for the Euro currency. The recent Flash GDP data, exceeding expectations, can be seen as a positive signal for the Euro's performance.

What's Next:

The next Flash GDP release is scheduled for January 30, 2025. Analysts and traders will be closely monitoring the data for any signs of continued economic momentum or potential headwinds in the French economy.

In Conclusion:

The recent French Flash GDP reading indicates that the economy continues to show signs of resilience, despite potential challenges. The data suggests that the Euro may benefit from the positive surprise, although further data releases are needed to assess the long-term impact.