By forex calendar in RMPI m/m —

CAD RMPI m/m, Nov 20, 2025

Toronto, ON – November 20, 2025 – In a development that will be closely scrutinized by traders and economists alike, Statistics Canada has released the latest figures for the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) on a month-over-month basis. The data, unveiled today, paints a nuanced picture of the cost pressures Canadian manufacturers are currently navigating.

The Latest Data: A Closer Look

The RMPI m/m for CAD reported an actual figure of 1.6% for November 2025. This comes in significantly higher than the forecast of 0.6%, and also surpasses the previous month's reading of 1.7%. Despite the higher-than-expected print, the impact of this release is categorized as Low. This might seem counterintuitive, but the context of what RMPI measures is crucial to understanding why.

Understanding the RMPI: A Leading Indicator for Inflation

The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) is a vital economic indicator that measures the change in the price of raw materials purchased by manufacturers. Released monthly, approximately 21 days after the month ends, this index provides a forward-looking glimpse into the cost structure of Canadian industry.

The reason traders care so deeply about the RMPI is its function as a leading indicator of consumer inflation. When manufacturers face higher costs for the raw materials they use to produce goods, these increased expenses are often, though not always immediately, passed on to consumers in the form of higher retail prices. Therefore, a rising RMPI can signal a future uptick in consumer price inflation, influencing monetary policy decisions and investment strategies.

Deconstructing the November 2025 Release

The latest RMPI m/m data for CAD reveals a 1.6% increase in the cost of raw materials for manufacturers. This figure is a notable deviation from the anticipated 0.6% increase, indicating that the cost of essential inputs for Canadian production has been more volatile than expected. While the actual figure of 1.6% is lower than the previous month's 1.7%, the substantial difference between the actual outcome and the forecast is the key takeaway.

The usual effect of the RMPI indicates that an 'Actual' reading greater than 'Forecast' is generally considered good for the currency. In this instance, the actual figure significantly exceeded the forecast. However, the "Low" impact rating assigned to this specific release suggests that the market may not be reacting with significant currency movements. This could be due to several factors:

  • Nature of the increase: The rise in raw material prices might be attributable to temporary supply chain disruptions, seasonal factors, or specific commodity price fluctuations that are not expected to have a sustained impact on the broader economy or consumer prices.
  • Other dominant economic factors: The currency market is influenced by a multitude of factors. Even a significant RMPI deviation might be overshadowed by more pressing geopolitical events, interest rate differentials, or domestic economic performance indicators released concurrently.
  • Market consensus: It's possible that while the official forecast was 0.6%, the market had already priced in a higher degree of uncertainty or anticipated upward pressure on raw material costs, making the 1.6% figure less surprising to sophisticated traders.
  • Sector-specific impacts: The RMPI aggregates prices across a range of raw materials. The overall increase might be driven by substantial price hikes in a few specific sectors, while others remain stable or even decline. If these sectors don't represent a significant portion of the overall manufacturing output or have a direct and immediate impact on consumer goods, the broader economic implications might be muted.

What This Means for Stakeholders

For Canadian manufacturers, the 1.6% increase signals a need for careful cost management. They may need to explore strategies such as:

  • Hedging: Implementing strategies to lock in prices for key raw materials to mitigate future volatility.
  • Supply chain diversification: Reducing reliance on single sources or regions prone to price shocks.
  • Efficiency improvements: Investing in technology and processes to reduce waste and optimize material usage.
  • Strategic pricing adjustments: Carefully considering how and when to pass on increased costs to consumers without significantly impacting demand.

For investors and currency traders, the RMPI data serves as a valuable piece of the economic puzzle. While the "Low" impact rating on this occasion suggests immediate significant currency swings are unlikely, the underlying trend of rising raw material costs, particularly when exceeding forecasts, warrants attention. It provides an early warning system that, in conjunction with other economic indicators, can help inform decisions about investment in Canadian assets and the outlook for the Canadian dollar.

The next release of the RMPI m/m is scheduled for December 22, 2025, covering the data for November 2025. This upcoming release will be crucial to determine if the current trend of higher-than-forecasted raw material costs is a one-off event or the beginning of a more sustained inflationary pressure on Canadian manufacturers. Until then, the 1.6% figure serves as a reminder of the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of global commodity markets and their ripple effects on national economies.