CAD Core Retail Sales m/m, Oct 22, 2024

Canadian Core Retail Sales Remain Steady: A Sign of Resilience in the Face of Economic Uncertainty

October 22, 2024 - Statistics Canada released its latest figures for Canadian Core Retail Sales, revealing a 0.3% month-over-month increase in September. This modest growth, while slightly below the 0.4% recorded in August, demonstrates continued consumer spending despite rising interest rates and inflationary pressures.

What are Core Retail Sales?

Core Retail Sales, also known as Retail Sales Ex Autos, provide a clearer picture of the health of consumer spending by excluding volatile automobile sales. Automobiles account for roughly 20% of total retail sales, and their fluctuations can obscure underlying trends in consumer behavior. This is why analysts and economists often focus on Core Retail Sales as a more reliable indicator of the overall retail landscape.

A Closer Look at the Data:

The latest figures show a slight slowdown in Core Retail Sales growth compared to August. However, it's important to note that the forecast for September was also 0.3%, indicating that the actual figure met expectations. This demonstrates a degree of stability in consumer spending despite the challenges faced by the Canadian economy.

The Potential Impact on the Canadian Dollar:

Traditionally, a higher-than-expected Core Retail Sales figure is considered positive for the Canadian Dollar (CAD). This is because strong retail sales suggest a healthy economy, which can attract investors and drive up demand for the currency. However, in the current economic climate, the impact of this relatively modest growth on the CAD may be muted.

What's Next?

The next release of Core Retail Sales data is scheduled for November 22, 2024. Analysts will be looking closely for any signs of a shift in consumer spending patterns, particularly as inflation remains a key concern for households.

Key Takeaways:

• Core Retail Sales in Canada saw a 0.3% month-over-month increase in September, matching the forecast.
• This indicates that consumer spending remains resilient despite economic headwinds.
• The exclusion of automobile sales from the data provides a clearer picture of underlying spending trends.
• The impact of the data release on the Canadian Dollar may be limited due to the current economic climate.

Stay tuned for the next Core Retail Sales release on November 22, 2024, for further insights into the health of the Canadian economy and its consumer spending patterns.